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Growth at Twelve Association of Research Libraries Members, 1908-2006

Abstract

Growth is shown here by two graphs: one of the mean number of volumes added each year by the 12 libraries and as a mean percentage growth of the volumes added divided by the volumes reportedly held.

Volumes Added, 1908-2006

First, we have the number of volumes added each year. Note the dots at 1907/08 and 1909/10. Annual collection of the data did not begin until 1911/12 so these dots represent the annual figures for those two years. Volumes added was changed in 1962/63 to two variables: volumes added, gross and volumes added, net. There is clear evidence that the Gerould volumes added figure is equivalent to ARL's volumes added, gross which is used here. The data used to generate these plots are below.

There is a fair amount of year-to-year variation but gross trends can be seen. The peak came in 1971 after a long period of increasing growth. This pattern reminds me of Fremont Rider's The Scholar and the Future of the Research Library1 which I summarized in an article in the ARL Newsletter2 in 1996. Rider understood clearly in the 1940s the implications of what he was seeing with the continually increasing number of volumes added to academic libraries and we know now the biggest growth was yet to come.

Since 1971, the mean number of volumes added at these institutions has been fairly consistent but this pattern is obviously different from the period before. Something happened to change the previous pattern. I have speculated that the Oil Embargo in 1973 and the following recession may have been a factor subsequently but what happened in 1968 to 1970 to affect libraries in 1971? More recently, volumes added has not declined with the changes in library budgets where more materials are in electronic formats. This fact is surprising given that more and more materials are electronic and not physical but it would not explain the roughly flat pattern since 1971 because electronic materials were not that important back then. It may be that these libraries are not typical of all ARL libraries--or all college libraries--and that examining the experience of all of these libraries will show something different. Or perhaps these libraries are in a steady state mode since 1971. Or, it may be that we are increasingly observing volume equivalents—not physical volumes but bibliographic volumes that are digital or even in microformats. Below the table of the plotted values is the percentage growth which will probe growth from another angle.

A line plot showing values for volumes added at these 12 libraries
Mean Volumes Added by the 12 ARL Libraries
Year Volumes Added   Year Volumes Added   Year Volumes Added
1908 8,689   1941 28,445   1974 119,247
1909 .   1942 28,319   1975 122,519
1910 10,976   1943 24,588   1976 117,328
1911 .   1944 25,066   1977 123,369
1912 12,245   1945 24,551   1978 122,371
1913 11,420   1946 33,841   1979 123,708
1914 13,771   1947 31,168   1980 116,935
1915 14,090   1948 46,369   1981 110,531
1916 13,831   1949 37,839   1982 111,037
1917 13,276   1950 37,199   1983 118,941
1918 11,670   1951 42,677   1984 122,878
1919 11,780   1952 42,262   1985 128,116
1920 11,614   1953 46,191   1986 128,160
1921 13,144   1954 52,215   1987 117,073
1922 16,747   1955 51,159   1988 111,835
1923 15,357   1956 52,948   1989 108,250
1924 15,508   1957 54,343   1990 116,770
1925 17,518   1958 57,517   1991 114,919
1926 17,398   1959 56,701   1992 124,180
1927 18,638   1960 61,987   1993 118,371
1928 22,104   1961 66,464   1994 126,366
1929 19,914   1962 76,068   1995 124,005
1930 22,604   1963 80,467   1996 124,911
1931 21,941   1964 87,767   1997 124,596
1932 22,414   1965 93,396   1998 117,999
1933 19,748   1966 104,058   1999 120,583
1934 18,475   1967 115,939   2000 123,071
1935 18,915   1968 127,234   2001 120,042
1936 21,660   1969 131,992   2002 124,096
1937 24,379   1970 139,682   2003 126,180
1938 27,014   1971 143,373   2004 133,668
1939 25,400   1972 126,714   2005 127,353
1940 25,988   1973 123,208   2006 121,931

Growth as a percent, 1913-2006

A line plot showing growth as a percent for these libraries

The first year we can calculate a percentage figure is 1912/13 (or 1913) because the formula requires two year's data in a row and annual collection of these data did not begin until 1911/12.

We see here that these libraries have been declining when growth is examined as a percentage so even though the growth in volumes added rose from the beginning of the data through 1971 as the plot above shows, we see here a general decline. If a library of 100,000 volumes adds 100,000 volumes in the first year, the growth rate would be 100%. In 8 more years adding 100,000 volumes, that library would now have 1,000,000 volumes and an increase of 100,000 volumes would be 10% growth. In 90 more years, that 100,000 would be 1% growth at a library of 10,000,000 volumes. So, a constant number of volumes added would result in a decreasing growth calculated as a percent. However, we do not see a constant and steady decline but, rather, some interesting dips and rises. Let's look at them.

Look at the drop in growth that happened after 1929 and during World War II. There are rises after the War and the increase that begins after 1957. My guess this is the effect of the spending on education that followed the Russian launch of Sputnik. This jump is not easy to see in the first chart above but it is here. The peak seen above in volumes added in 1971 shows up here in 1969 and 1970 so whatever caused the decline beginning in 1972 was presaged earlier.

Modelling what we see here would be useful. In effect, we see the fortunes of US universities in the last 95 years reflected in data from their libraries. Both methods of looking at these data--growth in volumes added and using these volumes added to calculate an annual percentage--provide useful exploratory information.

Mean % Growth, 1913-2006
Year Volumes Added   Year Volumes Added   Year Volumes Added
1908 .   1941 4.48   1974 4.16
1909 .   1942 4.22   1975 4.17
1910 .   1943 3.45   1976 3.92
1911 .   1944 3.21   1977 4.20
1912 .   1945 3.20   1978 3.82
1913 7.55   1946 3.65   1979 3.70
1914 9.13   1947 3.59   1980 3.31
1915 8.20   1948 4.77   1981 3.10
1916 7.51   1949 4.02   1982 2.98
1917 6.74   1950 4.01   1983 3.11
1918 5.51   1951 4.29   1984 3.14
1919 5.40   1952 4.06   1985 3.17
1920 4.94   1953 4.59   1986 3.13
1921 5.62   1954 4.62   1987 2.80
1922 6.10   1955 4.14   1988 2.61
1923 5.53   1956 4.37   1989 2.44
1924 5.54   1957 4.09   1990 2.59
1925 6.05   1958 4.38   1991 2.52
1926 5.51   1959 4.17   1992 2.63
1927 5.62   1960 4.30   1993 2.47
1928 5.73   1961 4.33   1994 2.71
1929 4.95   1962 4.66   1995 2.45
1930 5.80   1963 4.83   1996 2.42
1931 5.30   1964 5.02   1997 2.38
1932 4.90   1965 4.99   1998 2.24
1933 3.94   1966 5.41   1999 2.26
1934 3.85   1967 5.59   2000 2.21
1935 3.88   1968 6.20   2001 2.08
1936 4.02   1969 6.20   2002 2.13
1937 4.22   1970 6.06   2003 2.15
1938 4.31   1971 5.85   2004 2.18
1939 4.17   1972 4.31   2005 2.04
1940 4.12   1973 4.57   2006 1.89

Notes

1 Fremont Rider, The Scholar and the Future of the Research Library, (New York: Hadham Press, 1944).
2 Robert E. Molyneux, "Fremont Rider's Legacy", (pdf) ARL: A Bimonthly Newsletter of Research Library Issues and Actions, 188 (October 1996). For more citations dealing with Rider see the main ARL trends page notes 8 through 13.

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October 2, 2007
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